Article Data

  • Views 373
  • Dowloads 128

Original Research

Open Access

Study on the construction of risk prediction model and efficacy validation of cognitive decline in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes

  • Lizhen Zhao1,*,
  • Ying Ma1
  • Weimin Li1

1Department of General Practice, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital (Shijingshan Branch), Capital Medical University, 100040 Beijing, China

DOI: 10.22514/jomh.2024.043 Vol.20,Issue 3,March 2024 pp.99-105

Submitted: 24 November 2023 Accepted: 20 February 2024

Published: 30 March 2024

*Corresponding Author(s): Lizhen Zhao E-mail:


This study aims to construct a predictive model for assessing the risk of cognitive decline among elderly patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and validate its effectiveness. A total of 480 elderly patients with type 2 diabetes who signed a family doctor and underwent chronic disease management were selected and divided into a cognitive decline group (n = 62) and a non-cognitive decline group (n = 418) based on cognitive decline. Various clinical variables, lifestyle choices, medication regimens, complications, and medical histories were subjected to statistical analysis for both groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors, based on which a risk prediction model was constructed. Hosmer and Lemeshow were used to investigate the goodness of fit of the risk prediction model, and Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) was used to draw Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to assess the predictive value of the risk prediction model. Age, infrequent exercise, inadequate sleep, and the presence of depression emerged as significant risk factors for cognitive decline. The goodness-of-fit test using the Hosmer and Lemeshow statistic yielded χ2 = 0.041 and p = 0.855, confirming the model’s appropriateness. ROC curve analysis demonstrated an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.912 (95% CI: 0.874 to 0.950), underscoring the model’s predictive capability. Age, infrequent exercise, inadequate sleep and depression could be risk factors for cognitive decline in elderly individuals with type 2 diabetes, and the proposed risk prediction model displays robust predictive accuracy for identifying those at risk of cognitive decline.


Elderly type 2 diabetes; Cognitive decline; Risk prediction; Model construction; Efficacy validation

Cite and Share

Lizhen Zhao,Ying Ma,Weimin Li. Study on the construction of risk prediction model and efficacy validation of cognitive decline in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes. Journal of Men's Health. 2024. 20(3);99-105.


[1] Xie HY, Yuan AH, Yang J. Clinical observation on therapeutic effect of moxibustion on cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion. 2020; 40: 1286–1290. (In Chinese)

[2] Li Q, Jia M, Yan Z, Li Q, Sun F, He C, et al. Activation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor ameliorates cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus through a metabolism-independent pathway. Journal of the American Heart Association. 2021; 10: e020734.

[3] Frier BM. Cognitive decline in longstanding type 1 diabetes: a role for severe hypoglycaemia. The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. 2021; 9: 411–412.

[4] Antal B, McMahon LP, Sultan SF, Lithen A, Wexler DJ, Dickerson B, et al. Type 2 diabetes mellitus accelerates brain aging and cognitive decline: complementary findings from UK Biobank and meta-analyses. eLife. 2022; 11: e73138.

[5] de Almeida Faria ACR, Dall’Agnol JF, Gouveia AM, de Paiva CI, Segalla VC, Baena CP. Risk factors for cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Brazil: a prospective observational study. Diabetology & Metabolic Syndrome. 2022; 14: 105.

[6] Ehtewish H, Arredouani A, El-Agnaf O. Diagnostic, prognostic, and mechanistic biomarkers of diabetes mellitus-associated cognitive decline. International Journal of Molecular Sciences. 2022; 23: 6144.

[7] Imre N, Balogh R, Gosztolya G, Tóth L, Hoffmann I, Várkonyi T, et al. Temporal speech parameters indicate early cognitive decline in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders. 2022; 36: 148–155.

[8] Lee BC, Choe YM, Suh GH, Choi IG, Lee JH, Kim HS, et al. A combination of midlife diabetes mellitus and the apolipoprotein E ε4 allele increase risk for cognitive decline. Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience. 2022; 14: 1065117.

[9] Low S, Goh KS, Ng TP, Moh A, Ang SF, Khoo J, et al. Decline in skeletal muscle mass is associated with cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Journal of Diabetes and its Complications. 2022; 36: 108258.

[10] Mao Y, Zhong W. Insulin resistance is associated with cognitive decline in type 1 diabetes mellitus. Acta Diabetologica. 2022; 59: 571–573.

[11] Saito T, Yamada T, Miyauchi Y, Emoto N, Okajima F. Use of the Japanese version of the montreal cognitive assessment to estimate cognitive decline in patients aged 75 years or older with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Journal of Nippon Medical School. 2022; 89: 196–202.

[12] Shao P, Xu H, Sheng X, Qin R, Ma J, Luo Y, et al. Lobar cerebral microbleeds are associated with cognitive decline in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Frontiers in Neurology. 2022; 13: 843260.

[13] Wu Y, Tan KC, Shiu SW, Luo Y, Shi L, Kwok TC. Cholesterol efflux capacity of high-density lipoprotein was not associated with cognitive decline and brain structures in older people with diabetes mellitus. Journal of Diabetes Investigation. 2022; 13: 1873–1880.

[14] Xie K, Perna L, Schöttker B, Kliegel M, Brenner H, Mons U. Type 2 diabetes mellitus and cognitive decline in older adults in Germany—results from a population-based cohort. BMC Geriatrics. 2022; 22: 455.

[15] Hu R, Gao B, Tian S, Liu Y, Jiang Y, Li W, et al. Regional high iron deposition on quantitative susceptibility mapping correlates with cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Frontiers in Neuroscience. 2023; 17: 1061156.

[16] Kinattingal N, Mehdi S, Undela K, Wani SUD, Almuqbil M, Alshehri S, et al. Prevalence of cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients: a real-world cross-sectional study in Mysuru, India. Journal of Personalized Medicine. 2023; 13: 524.

[17] Ndolo RO, Yu L, Zhao Y, Lu J, Wang G, Zhao X, et al. Carnosine-based reversal of diabetes-associated cognitive decline via activation of the Akt/mTOR pathway and modulation of autophagy in a rat model of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders. 2023; 52: 156–168.

[18] Pelle MC, Zaffina I, Giofrè F, Pujia R, Arturi F. Potential role of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in the treatment of cognitive decline and dementia in diabetes mellitus. International Journal of Molecular Sciences. 2023; 24: 11301.

Abstracted / indexed in

Science Citation Index Expanded (SciSearch) Created as SCI in 1964, Science Citation Index Expanded now indexes over 9,200 of the world’s most impactful journals across 178 scientific disciplines. More than 53 million records and 1.18 billion cited references date back from 1900 to present.

Journal Citation Reports/Science Edition Journal Citation Reports/Science Edition aims to evaluate a journal’s value from multiple perspectives including the journal impact factor, descriptive data about a journal’s open access content as well as contributing authors, and provide readers a transparent and publisher-neutral data & statistics information about the journal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) DOAJ is a unique and extensive index of diverse open access journals from around the world, driven by a growing community, committed to ensuring quality content is freely available online for everyone.

SCImago The SCImago Journal & Country Rank is a publicly available portal that includes the journals and country scientific indicators developed from the information contained in the Scopus® database (Elsevier B.V.)

Publication Forum - JUFO (Federation of Finnish Learned Societies) Publication Forum is a classification of publication channels created by the Finnish scientific community to support the quality assessment of academic research.

Scopus: CiteScore 0.7 (2022) Scopus is Elsevier's abstract and citation database launched in 2004. Scopus covers nearly 36,377 titles (22,794 active titles and 13,583 Inactive titles) from approximately 11,678 publishers, of which 34,346 are peer-reviewed journals in top-level subject fields: life sciences, social sciences, physical sciences and health sciences.

Norwegian Register for Scientific Journals, Series and Publishers Search for publication channels (journals, series and publishers) in the Norwegian Register for Scientific Journals, Series and Publishers to see if they are considered as scientific. (

Submission Turnaround Time