Performance determinants in elite men's sport: a tactical analysis of ball possession effectiveness at the 2023 Rugby World Cup

Background: Ball possession (BP) is one of the most influential performance indicators in rugby union. However, few studies have analyzed its effectiveness at the Men’s Rugby World Cup (RWC) level. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of BP in the 2023 Men’s RWC, comparing winning and losing male national teams to identify key tactical patterns associated with success. Methods: A total of 2645 BP phases from 38 matches involving 20 men’s national teams were analyzed through a retrospective observational design. Statistical analyses included chi-square tests with post hoc standardized residuals, Cramer’s V to measure effect sizes, and a binary logistic regression model (pseudo R2 = 0.00616) to assess the probability of winning or losing based on BP effectiveness. Results: Significant differences were found between winning and losing male teams at the beginning of BP sequences. Winning teams showed higher-than-expected frequencies of effective possessions initiated by lineout plus ruck or maul, ruck, and own kick (residuals ranging from 2.02 to 4.32). In contrast, losing teams exhibited more ineffective possessions when play began from restarts or opposition kicks (residual = 3.46). During BP development, winning teams demonstrated superior effectiveness in actions involving both backs and forwards, and in attacking through channel 1 and channel 2. These teams also showed greater efficiency when one to four or more players were involved in coordinated offensive actions. Conclusions: The findings highlight that successful male rugby teams optimize BP during critical moments of the game, efficiently converting initial phases into scoring opportunities. Versatility in attack and the ability to maintain possession under different tactical contexts appear to be key performance indicators associated with success in elite men’s rugby competitions.

Team sport; Performance indicator; Tactical analysis; Ball possession; Match profile; Effectiveness

[1] Wedding C, Woods CT, Sinclair WH, Gomez MA, Leicht AS. Analysis of styles of play according to season and end of season rank in the National Rugby League. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 2021; 24: 206–210.

[2] Kempton T, Sirotic AC, Coutts AJ. A comparison of physical and technical performance profiles between successful and less-successful professional rugby league teams. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance. 2017; 12: 520–526.

[3] Parmar N, James N, Hughes M, Jones H, Hearne G. Team performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2017; 17: 1044–1056.

[4] Woods CT, Robertson S, Sinclair WH, Collier NF. Non-metric multidimensional performance indicator scaling reveals seasonal and team dissimilarity within the National Rugby League. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 2018; 21: 410–415.

[5] Liu T, Yang L, Chen H, García-de-Alcaraz A. Impact of possession and player position on physical and technical-tactical performance indicators in the Chinese Football Super League. Frontiers in Psychology. 2021; 12: 722200.

[6] Wang SH, Qin Y, Jia Y, Igor KE. A systematic review about the performance indicators related to ball possession. PLOS ONE. 2022; 17: e0265540.

[7] Ungureanu AN, Brustio PR, Lupo C. Technical and tactical effectiveness is related to time-motion performance in elite rugby. The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness. 2021; 61: 167–174.

[8] Pino-Ortega J, Rojas-Valverde D, Gómez-Carmona CD, Rico-González M. Training design, performance analysis, and talent identification-a systematic review about the most relevant variables through the principal component analysis in soccer, basketball, and rugby. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18: 2642.

[9] World Rugby. Laws of the game. 2025. Available at: https://passport.world.rugby/laws-of-the-game/ (Accessed: 10 March 2025).

[10] Bennett M, Bezodis N, Shearer DA, Locke D, Kilduff LP. Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 2019; 22: 330–334.

[11] den Hollander S, Jones B, Lambert M, Hendricks S. The what and how of video analysis research in rugby union: a critical review. Sports Medicine—Open. 2018; 4: 27.

[12] Hendricks S. Match analysis in rugby. In Memmert D (ed.) Match analysis (pp. 102–111). 1st edn. Routledge: New York. 2021.

[13] Hendricks S, Till K, den Hollander S, Savage TN, Roberts SP, Tierney G, et al. Consensus on a video analysis framework of descriptors and definitions by the Rugby Union Video Analysis Consensus group. British Journal of Sports Medicine. 2020; 54: 566–572.

[14] Kraak W, Coetzee F, Venter R. Analysis of the general match profile of international rugby union between 2007 and 2013. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2017; 17: 303–318.

[15] Guerrero-Esteban S, Solé J, Daza G. Variables involved in ball possession in rugby: a systematic review. Apunts Educación Física y Deportes. 2023; 153: 90–100. (In Spanish)

[16] Colomer CME, Pyne DB, Mooney M, McKune A, Serpell BG. Performance analysis in rugby union: a critical systematic review. Sports Medicine—Open. 2020; 6: 4.

[17] Coughlan M, Mountifield C, Sharpe S, Mara JK. How they scored the tries: applying cluster analysis to identify playing patterns that lead to tries in super rugby. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2019; 19: 435–451.

[18] Vaz L, Hendricks S, Kraak W. Statistical review and match analysis of rugby world cups finals. Journal of Human Kinetics. 2019; 66: 247–256.

[19] Schoeman R, Coetzee DF. Time-motion analysis: discriminating between winning and losing teams in professional rugby. South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation. 2014; 36: 167–178.

[20] van Rooyen KM, Lambert IM, Noakes DT. A retrospective analysis of the IRB statistics and video analysis of match play to explain the performance of four teams in the 2003 Rugby World Cup. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2006; 6: 57–72.

[21] Watson N, Durbach I, Hendricks S, Stewart T. On the validity of team performance indicators in rugby union. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2017; 17: 609–621.

[22] Bunker R, Spencer K. Performance indicators contributing to success at the group and play-off stages of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Journal of Human Sport and Exercise. 2021; 17: 683–698.

[23] Mosey TJ, Mitchell LJG. Key performance indicators in Australian sub-elite rugby union. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 2020; 23: 35–40.

[24] Bennett M, Bezodis NE, Shearer DA, Kilduff LP. Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup. European Journal of Sport Science. 2021; 21: 312–320.

[25] Bishop L, Barnes A. Performance indicators that discriminate winning and losing in the knockout stages of the 2011 Rugby World Cup. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2013; 13: 149–159.

[26] Diedrick E, van Rooyen M. Line break situations in international rugby. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2011; 11: 522–534.

[27] Hughes A, Barnes A, Churchill SM, Stone JA. Performance indicators that discriminate winning and losing in elite men’s and women’s Rugby Union. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2017; 17: 534–544.

[28] van Rooyen KM, Diedrick E, Noakes DT. Ruck frequency as a predictor of success in the 2007 Rugby World Cup Tournament. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2010; 10: 33–46.

[29] Lorenzo A, Gómez MÁ, Ortega E, Ibáñez SJ, Sampaio J. Game related statistics which discriminate between winning and losing under-16 male basketball games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine. 2010; 9: 664–668.

[30] Schoeman R, Coetzee D, Schall R. Comparisons of performance indicators between Super Rugby and Currie Cup competition during 2014 season. South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation. 2017; 39: 135–144.

[31] Schoeman R, Schall R. Comparison of match-related performance indicators between major professional rugby competitions. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching. 2019; 14: 344–354.

[32] Callinan MJ, Connor JD, Sinclair WH, Gómez M. Performance metrics that matter: assessing winning and losing teams in women’s Rugby union. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2025; 25: 808–821.

[33] Villarejo D, Ortega E, Gómez M, Palao J. Design, validation, and reliability of an observational instrument for ball possessions in rugby union. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2014; 14: 955–967.

[34] Villarejo-García DH. Technical and tactical differences between winners and losers in men’s international rugby [doctoral thesis]. University of Murcia. 2012.

[35] Lord F, Pyne DB, Welvaert M, Mara JK. Capture, analyse, visualise: an exemplar of performance analysis in practice in field hockey. PLOS ONE. 2022; 17: e0268171.

[36] Ortega-Toro E, García-Angulo A, Giménez-Egido JM, García-Angulo FJ, Palao JM. Design, validation, and reliability of an observation instrument for technical and tactical actions of the offense phase in soccer. Frontiers in Psychology. 2019; 10: 22.

[37] Kvasnytsya O, Tyshchenko V, Latyshev M, Kvasnytsya I, Kirsanov M, Plakhotniuk O, et al. Team performance indicators that predict match outcome in rugby union. Pamukkale Journal of Sport Sciences. 2024; 15: 203–216.

[38] O’Donoghue P. Research methods for sports performance analysis. 1st edn. Routledge: London, UK. 2010.

[39] Losada JL, Manolov R. The process of basic training, applied training, maintaining the performance of an observer. Quality & Quantity. 2015; 49: 339–347.

[40] Cohen J. Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. 2nd edn. Routledge: New York. 1988.

[41] Nicholls M, Coetzee D, Schall R, Kraak W. Analysing match-related performance indicators in Super Rugby Competitions: a study of the 2017–2019 seasons. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching. 2024; 19: 1066–1081.

[42] Sella FS, Mcmaster DT, Serpiello FR, La Torre A. Match analysis in Rugby Union: performance indicators of Rugby Championship and Super Rugby teams. The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness. 2018; 59: 1306–1310.

[43] den Hollander S, Brown J, Lambert M, Treu P, Hendricks S. Skills associated with line breaks in Elite Rugby Union. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine. 2016; 15: 501–508.

[44] Guerrero S, Pardo P, Piedra A, Albesa-Albiol L, Sánchez JA, Peña J, et al. Variables associated with the performance of a male European professional rugby team. Analysis of the regular season. Retos. 2023; 49: 1056–1062.

[45] Villarejo D, Palao JM, Ortega E. Differences in technical and tactical indicators of performance between winners and losers in the Women Rugby World Cup 2010. Cuadernos de Psicología del Deporte. 2016; 16: 269–274.

[46] Kvasnytsya O, Tyshchenko V, Latyshev M, Kvasnytsia I, Mozoliuk O, Rebryna A, et al. Comparative analysis of winning and losing teams in rugby union. Journal of Physical Education and Sport. 2024; 24: 1902–1908.

[47] Villarejo García DH, Navarro-Martínez C, Pino-Ortega J. Use of multivariate statistics to analyze performance in futsal competitions: a systematic review. Retos. 2025; 66: 539.

[48] Anguera MT, Blanco-Villaseñor A, Losada JL, Sánchez-Algarra P, Onwuegbuzie AJ. Revisiting the difference between mixed methods and multimethods: is it all in the name? Quality & Quantity. 2018; 52: 2757–2770.

[49] Becerra Patiño BAB, Escorcia-Clavijo JB. The transfer and dissemination of knowledge in sports training: a scoping review. Retos. 2023; 50: 79–90.